string(13) "markets-macro"

Macro

October 25, 2022

Infrastructure stimulus comes good

Alongside the Q3 data (see previous entry), China’s stats bureau (NBS) also published the monthly econ data for September on Monday. The headlines: Retail sales increased 2.5% y/y in September, down from a 5.4% y/y increase in August. Fixed-asset investment (FAI) rose 6.6% y/y in September, compare… Username Password Remember Me Forgot Password

Alongside the Q3 data (see previous entry), China’s stats bureau (NBS) also published the monthly econ data for September on Monday.
The headlines:

Retail sales increased 2.5% y/y in September, down from a 5.4% y/y increase in August.
Fixed-asset investment (FAI) rose 6.6% y/y in September, compare...

sources

NBS: 2022年9月份社会消费品零售总额增长2.5%

NBS: 2022年1—9月份全国固定资产投资（不含农户）增长5.9%

October 25, 2022

Data dump – 3Q GDP

China’s stats bureau (NBS) released the delayed third-quarter GDP results on Monday. The headlines: The economy bounced back from growth of just 0.4% y/y in Q2 to a 3.9% y/y increase in the third quarter. GDP in 3Q22 rose 3.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis versus the previous three months. The pi…

China’s stats bureau (NBS) released the delayed third-quarter GDP results on Monday.
The headlines:

The economy bounced back from growth of just 0.4% y/y in Q2 to a 3.9% y/y increase in the third quarter.
GDP in 3Q22 rose 3.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis versus the previous three months.

The pi...

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NBS: 前三季度国民经济恢复向好

Bloomberg: Xi Starts Third Term With GDP Showing China Economy in Doldrums

October 25, 2022

Tech breakthroughs are the new GDP

Wanna know how to supercharge your career in the Party? A central narrative coming out of the 20th Party Congress is that loyalty to Xi matters a great deal for officials when it comes to securing a promotion. Coming in a close second: Whether you can tackle so-called “chokehold technologies” or cr…

Wanna know how to supercharge your career in the Party?
A central narrative coming out of the 20th Party Congress is that loyalty to Xi matters a great deal for officials when it comes to securing a promotion.
Coming in a close second: Whether you can tackle so-called “chokehold technologies" or cr...

sources

Xinhua: 高举伟大旗帜　谱写崭新篇章——新一届中共中央委员会和中共中央纪律检查委员会诞生记

October 25, 2022

Biren attempts to work around US sanctions

Over the past week, multiple reports have emerged that China’s top graphics chip designer Biren is angling to find a way around the latest US export controls. The controls restrict China’s ability to access high-performance chips used for AI training. Background: Like other fabless chip companies,…

Over the past week, multiple reports have emerged that China's top graphics chip designer Biren is angling to find a way around the latest US export controls.

The controls restrict China’s ability to access high-performance chips used for AI training.

Background: Like other fabless chip companies,...

sources

Semianalysis: How China’s Biren Is Attempting To Evade US Sanctions

Bloomberg: Chinese Chip Startup Shows Key Gap in Biden Export Curbs

Bloomberg: TSMC Suspends Work for Chinese Chip Startup Amid US Curbs

October 25, 2022

Bringing export controls to full bloom

On Friday, Bloomberg reported that the Biden Administration is working on additional export control measures focusing on quantum computing and AI software. ICYMI: Earlier this month, the US announced its toughest measures yet to cut China off from the US semiconductor supply chain. Yikes: Similar co…

On Friday, Bloomberg reported that the Biden Administration is working on additional export control measures focusing on quantum computing and AI software.
ICYMI: Earlier this month, the US announced its toughest measures yet to cut China off from the US semiconductor supply chain.
Yikes: Similar co...

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Bloomberg: US Eyes Expanding China Tech Ban to Quantum Computing and AI

October 25, 2022

China’s scanners es muy bueno

On Friday, the Washington Post highlighted US concerns over the Mexican government’s plans to buy vehicle and cargo scanners from Chinese firm Nuctech. Background: In 2014, Nuctech was banned from US airports and, in 2020, placed on the BIS Entity List because their equipment wasn’t up to scratch. …

On Friday, the Washington Post highlighted US concerns over the Mexican government’s plans to buy vehicle and cargo scanners from Chinese firm Nuctech.
Background: In 2014, Nuctech was banned from US airports and, in 2020, placed on the BIS Entity List because their equipment wasn’t up to scratch.

...

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WaPo: U.S. urges Mexico not to buy Chinese scanners for the border

Associated Press: Security scanners across Europe tied to China govt, military

BIS: Addition of Entities to the Entity List, Revision of Entry on the Entity List, and Removal of Entities from the Entity List (December 18, 2020)

October 25, 2022

YMTC let go of key staff

Here comes the inevitable. On Monday, FT reported that China’s best NAND memory maker YMTC is letting go of core US employees to comply with the latest US export controls. ICYMI: The controls ban Americans from supporting advanced chipmaking for Chinese companies, including YMTC. Why it matters: Man…

Here comes the inevitable.
On Monday, FT reported that China’s best NAND memory maker YMTC is letting go of core US employees to comply with the latest US export controls.
ICYMI: The controls ban Americans from supporting advanced chipmaking for Chinese companies, including YMTC.
Why it matters: Man...

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FT: China’s YMTC asks core US staff to leave due to chip export controls

October 25, 2022

Bad car-ma

On Monday, Tesla announced price cuts of up to 9% on its Model 3 and Model Y vehicles sold in China – fuelling concerns they could spark a price war come 2023. The price cut contrasts starkly with the trend of rising vehicle prices throughout 2022. ICYDK: New energy vehicles (NEVs) – including Tes…

On Monday, Tesla announced price cuts of up to 9% on its Model 3 and Model Y vehicles sold in China – fuelling concerns they could spark a price war come 2023.

The price cut contrasts starkly with the trend of rising vehicle prices throughout 2022.

ICYDK: New energy vehicles (NEVs) – including Tes...

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Deutsch Welle: 特斯拉调降在华汽车售价分析师忧恐掀价格战

October 25, 2022

Flash talk | Up close and personnel: The new Politburo and its Standing Committee

In this flash talk, Andrew Polk and Ether Yin, both Trivium partners and co-founders, get together to discuss the new, 20th Central Committee’s 24-man Politburo and its seven-man Standing Committee, unveiled on October 23, and the implications for power and policy in China. Get ready for power plays…

In this flash talk, Andrew Polk and Ether Yin, both Trivium partners and co-founders, get together to discuss the new, 20th Central Committee's 24-man Politburo and its seven-man Standing Committee, unveiled on October 23, and the implications for power and policy in China.
Get ready for power plays...

October 25, 2022

US catches spies helping Huawei

On Monday, the US Department of Justice (DoJ) announced charges against two alleged Chinese spies. The crime: According to DoJ, the Chinese agents: “…orchestrated a scheme to steal files and other information from the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of New York related to the ongo…

On Monday, the US Department of Justice (DoJ) announced charges against two alleged Chinese spies.
The crime: According to DoJ, the Chinese agents:

"...orchestrated a scheme to steal files and other information from the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of New York related to the ongo...

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CNN: Alleged Chinese spies charged with trying to recruit assets, obstruct US Huawei investigation

Lawfare Blog: Justice Department Unveils Charges Against 13 Individuals for Alleged Participation in Efforts to Assist the Government of the People’s Republic of China

US Department of Justice: Two Chinese Intelligence Officers Charged with Obstruction of Justice in Scheme to Bribe U.S. Government Employee and Steal Documents Related to the Federal Prosecution of a PRC-Based Company

US Department of Justice: 两名中国情报官被控阻碍司法公正策谋贿赂美国政府雇员并窃取对位于中国一家公司联邦诉讼的有关文件

US Department of Justice: Two Arrested and 13 Charged in Three Separate Cases for Alleged Participation in Malign Schemes in the United States on Behalf of the Government of the People’s Republic of China

October 25, 2022

Red all over

How are markets reacting to China’s new leadership team unveiled on Sunday? In a word: Poorly. Some highlights: Hong Kong’s flagship Hang Seng Index dropped 6.4%, while its TECH Index – which includes the likes of Tencent, Alibaba, and JD.com – dropped 9.7%. US-listed Chinese stocks got absolutely …

How are markets reacting to China's new leadership team unveiled on Sunday?
In a word: Poorly.
Some highlights:

Hong Kong’s flagship Hang Seng Index dropped 6.4%, while its TECH Index – which includes the likes of Tencent, Alibaba, and JD.com – dropped 9.7%.
US-listed Chinese stocks got absolutely ...

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Caixin: 今日收盘：北向资金净卖出近180亿元沪指下跌2%失守3000点

Bloomberg: Xi’s Power Grab Spurs Historic Market Rout as Foreigners Flee

October 25, 2022

Another rough month for the property sector

On Monday, the stats bureau (NBS) released September property sector data. The verdict: Things are bad, but could be worse. Some numbers: New home prices were down 0.28% m/m, falling in 54 of the 70 cities surveyed. Existing home prices dropped 0.39% m/m, the largest fall since October 2014. Home s…

On Monday, the stats bureau (NBS) released September property sector data.
The verdict: Things are bad, but could be worse.
Some numbers:

New home prices were down 0.28% m/m, falling in 54 of the 70 cities surveyed.
Existing home prices dropped 0.39% m/m, the largest fall since October 2014.
Home s...

sources

NBS: 国家统计局城市司首席统计师绳国庆解读 2022年9月份商品住宅销售价格变动情况统计数据

NBS: 2022年9月份70个大中城市商品住宅销售价格变动情况

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