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Macro

May 12, 2020

Data dump – credit

The central bank (PBoC) dropped monthly credit data for April late on Monday. The headline: Overall credit growth accelerated to its fastest pace since May 2018 – supported by solid bank lending and an ongoing surge in corporate bond issuance. The details: Headline aggregate finance to the economy … Username Password Remember Me … Read More »

The central bank (PBoC) dropped monthly credit data for April late on Monday.
The headline: Overall credit growth accelerated to its fastest pace since May 2018 – supported by solid bank lending and an ongoing surge in corporate bond issuance.
The details:

Headline aggregate finance to the economy ...

sources

Gov.cn: 2020年4月社会融资规模存量统计数据报告

May 12, 2020

The long march to resumption cont’d

China’s economy may be stalling out in its slow climb to full recovery, according to the Trivium Business Activity Index. Here are our estimates as of May 12: The Trivium National Business Activity Index indicates that China’s economy is operating at 87.0% of typical output, showing no improvement …

China’s economy may be stalling out in its slow climb to full recovery, according to the Trivium Business Activity Index.
Here are our estimates as of May 12:

The Trivium National Business Activity Index indicates that China’s economy is operating at 87.0% of typical output, showing no improvement ...

sources

Trivium Business Activity Index: 截至5月11日24时新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情最新情况

May 12, 2020

A quiet COVID day

After a worrying weekend, it was a quiet Monday on the COVID-19 front. On Monday, China recorded (NHC): One new confirmed case, which had been imported. This was a welcome relief after an uptick of 22 local transmissions over the weekend (see Yesterday’s Tip Sheet). China also reported 15 asympto…

After a worrying weekend, it was a quiet Monday on the COVID-19 front.
On Monday, China recorded (NHC):

One new confirmed case, which had been imported.

This was a welcome relief after an uptick of 22 local transmissions over the weekend (see Yesterday’s Tip Sheet).

China also reported 15 asympto...

sources

NHC: 截至5月11日24时新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情最新情况

The Paper: 武汉紧急通知：全市范围内开展全员核酸筛查“十天大会战”

The Paper: 吉林日报刊文：舒兰疫情暴露防控漏洞，给全省敲响警钟

21st Century Biz: 全国返校学生数预计5月底将达1.5亿至2亿

May 8, 2020

Local governments dig deep

Last month, we told you that top leaders were preparing for a fiscal worst-case scenario at the April Politburo meeting (see April 21 Tip Sheet). The problem: Governments at the county level and below are facing possible shutdowns due to a lack of fiscal resources. The risk is real according to…

Last month, we told you that top leaders were preparing for a fiscal worst-case scenario at the April Politburo meeting (see April 21 Tip Sheet).
The problem: Governments at the county level and below are facing possible shutdowns due to a lack of fiscal resources.
The risk is real according to...

sources

China Economic Net: 县级财政”红灯”：余额不够付一月工资省财政厅未知情

The Paper: 疫情影响地方财政：全国12省份一季度财政收入降幅超14%

May 8, 2020

Xi urges solidarity with Portugal and Uzbekistan

You know what time it is… Time for another edition of the Xi Jinping ‘Round the World COVID-19 Public Relations Telethon Extravaganza. Some context: In recent weeks, senior Chinese leaders have placed dozens of calls to foreign leaders with messages of support in their fight against COVID-…

You know what time it is…
Time for another edition of the Xi Jinping ‘Round the World COVID-19 Public Relations Telethon Extravaganza.
Some context: In recent weeks, senior Chinese leaders have placed dozens of calls to foreign leaders with messages of support in their fight against COVID-...

sources

CGTN: Xi Jinping hails solidarity as ‘most powerful weapon’ against COVID-19

Xinhua: Xi calls for global synergy against COVID-19

Xinhua: Xi urges global solidarity, cooperation against grave challenges

May 8, 2020

Liu He talks to US counterparts

On Friday morning, Vice Premier Liu He got on the phone with US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin. Some context: The three men led negotiations for the phase one trade deal signed in January. More context: The economic slowdown is making it diff…

On Friday morning, Vice Premier Liu He got on the phone with US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin.
Some context: The three men led negotiations for the phase one trade deal signed in January.
More context: The economic slowdown is making it diff...

sources

Xinhua: 刘鹤与莱特希泽、姆努钦通话

USTR: USTR and Treasury Statement on Call With China

WSJ: U.S. and China Negotiators Pledge to Implement Phase One Trade Deal

May 8, 2020

Auto market pain temporarily relieved

While China’s economy is still trying to find its feet, at least one industry looks like it might be on the road to stabilization. Aprily/y auto sales increased for the first time in almost two years (Yahoo): “Carmakers shipped 2 million vehicles to dealerships and stores in April, up 0.9% fro…

“Carmakers shipped 2 million vehicles to dealerships and stores in April, up 0.9% fro...

sources

Yahoo: China Car Sales Rebound With First Monthly Gain Since 2018

May 8, 2020

The scale of employment pressure revealed…sort of

New data from the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security (MoHRSS) sheds some light on the employment pressures brought on by COVID-19. MoHRSS says that so far in 2020, it has refunded RMB 42.3 billion worth of unemployment insurance payments to 3.2 million companies. Some context: Au…

New data from the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security (MoHRSS) sheds some light on the employment pressures brought on by COVID-19.

MoHRSS says that so far in 2020, it has refunded RMB 42.3 billion worth of unemployment insurance payments to 3.2 million companies.

Some context: Au...

sources

China Securities Journal: 人社部：全国向320万户企业发放失业保险稳岗返还423亿元

Gov.cn: 关于延长小规模纳税人减免增值税政策执行期限的公告

May 8, 2020

The long march to resumption

You’ve had a long week. Reward yourself with a cool glass of business activity resumption data courtesy of the Trivium Business Activity Index. Here are our estimates as of May 8: The Trivium National Business Activity Index indicates that China’s economy is operating at 86.4% of typ…

You’ve had a long week. Reward yourself with a cool glass of business activity resumption data courtesy of the Trivium Business Activity Index.
Here are our estimates as of May 8:

The Trivium National Business Activity Index indicates that China’s economy is operating at 86.4% of typ...

sources

Trivium China: Trivium Business Activity Index

May 8, 2020

The new normal

This morning, the National Health Commission (NHC) dropped the latest numbers for domestic COVID-19 cases. On May 7 (NHC): There was only one new confirmed case. The case was a local transmission in Shulan,Jilin, breaking the five-day “no local transmissions” streak. This is tricky: Local hea…

This morning, the National Health Commission (NHC) dropped the latest numbers for domestic COVID-19 cases.
On May 7 (NHC):

There was only one new confirmed case.
The case was a local transmission in Shulan,Jilin, breaking the five-day “no local transmissions” streak.

This is tricky: Local hea...

sources

NHC: 截至5月7日24时新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情最新情况

Xinhua: 吉林省新增本地确诊病例1例

Gov.cn: 李克强主持召开中央应对新冠肺炎疫情工作领导小组会议要求总结推广有效做法精准做好常态化防控有序推动学校复学复课加快提升快速检测能力

Gov.cn: 沪发布关于个人佩戴口罩的指引

The Paper: 北京疾控：办公场所应随身携带口罩，这些情形下佩戴

May 7, 2020

State Council promises to stay the course

The State Council did its thing on Wednesday, holding its weekly executive meeting. Top of the agenda: Getting the economy back to normal. Government officials listened to a report on the government’s current economic support policies, which consist of 90 various supportive measures. Premier Li Keqi…

The State Council did its thing on Wednesday, holding its weekly executive meeting.
Top of the agenda: Getting the economy back to normal.
Government officials listened to a report on the government’s current economic support policies, which consist of 90 various supportive measures.
Premier Li Keqi...

sources

Gov.cn: 李克强主持召开国务院常务会议听取支持复工复产和助企纾困政策措施落实情况汇报推出和进一步完善相关政策加大稳企业保就业力度

Gov.cn: China to redouble efforts in resuming work and production to maintain stability in employment and livelihood

May 7, 2020

Ultimate fighter 206– MoF vs. PBoC

Stop us if you’ve heard this one before: China’s Ministry of Finance (MoF) and central bank (PBoC) are butting heads. The latest sticking point: MoF officials think the PBoC should be financing its special treasury bonds. The details (SCMP): “Liu Shangxi, president of the Chinese Aca…

Stop us if you’ve heard this one before: China’s Ministry of Finance (MoF) and central bank (PBoC) are butting heads.
The latest sticking point: MoF officials think the PBoC should be financing its special treasury bonds.
The details (SCMP):

“Liu Shangxi, president of the Chinese Aca...

sources

SCMP: Coronavirus: China’s central bank, finance ministry at odds over funding for economic recovery

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