string(13) "markets-macro"

Macro

July 17, 2017

Gauging the impact of the Financial Work Conference

Patience is a virtue. And it’s one to practice when analyzing outcomes of the National Financial Work Conference (NFWC) that took place over the weekend. We have the readout from the meeting, but if past is prologue, state media should be releasing full texts of both Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang’s… Username Password Remember Me … Read More »

Patience is a virtue. And it’s one to practice when analyzing outcomes of the National Financial Work Conference (NFWC) that took place over the weekend.
We have the readout from the meeting, but if past is prologue, state media should be releasing full texts of both Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang’s...

sources

Cailianshe: 全国金融工作会议在北京召开

Weixin: 第五次⾦融⼯作会议划内容重点！习近平定调⾦融⼯作四大原则，设⽴国务院⾦融稳定发展委员会

Bloomberg: Five Takeaways From China’s Weekend Meeting on Financial Regulation

July 17, 2017

Watching and waiting for the new PBoC governor

We do not yet know if the next PBoC governor was discussed at the NFWC. But we do know there are only a couple of windows to announce the successor to Governor Zhou between now and the end of the year. Given the timing of the NFWC and some procedural stars that are aligned from now to… Read More »

We do not yet know if the next PBoC governor was discussed at the NFWC.
But we do know there are only a couple of windows to announce the successor to Governor Zhou between now and the end of the year. Given the timing of the NFWC and some procedural stars that are aligned from now to the ...

sources

Reuters: China central bank told by Xi to play bigger role in managing financial risk

July 17, 2017

Meet China’s newest regulatory committee

As if we needed it, we’ve got new acronym in the Chinese regulatory space – FSDC. That stands for Financial Stability and Development Committee, and it is the new entity that was established at the NFWC to coordinate policy between the central bank and the other regulators. The full details of the F…

As if we needed it, we’ve got new acronym in the Chinese regulatory space – FSDC.
That stands for Financial Stability and Development Committee, and it is the new entity that was established at the NFWC to coordinate policy between the central bank and the other regulators.
The full details of the F...

sources

Xinhua: 习近平：深化金融改革促进经济和金融良性循环健康发展

July 17, 2017

Local governments and lifetime accountability

When China faces financial troubles, they are likely to play out in localized regional crises as opposed to a nation-wide big bang. That’s our view, at least. And it seems that Xi Jinping may be coming to the same conclusion. He upped the ante for local officials at NFWC this weekend. What did …

When China faces financial troubles, they are likely to play out in localized regional crises as opposed to a nation-wide big bang. That’s our view, at least.
And it seems that Xi Jinping may be coming to the same conclusion. He upped the ante for local officials at NFWC this weekend.
What did ...

sources

Xinhua: 习近平：深化金融改革促进经济和金融良性循环健康发展

July 17, 2017

China’s GDP – the right number to watch

11.4% – that is the number we are zeroed in on today. It was China’s nominal GDP growth in the first six months of 2017 (year-on-year), and it is the highest print for H1 since 2011. Don’t get us wrong – we aren’t saying that China’s economy is genuinely accelerating. And we unde…

11.4% – that is the number we are zeroed in on today.
It was China’s nominal GDP growth in the first six months of 2017 (year-on-year), and it is the highest print for H1 since 2011.
Don’t get us wrong – we aren’t saying that China’s economy is genuinely accelerating. And we unde...

sources

NBS: Steady and Sound Development Momentum of National Economy was More Visible in the First Half Year

Reuters: China second quarter GDP growth tops forecasts on strong investment, consumption

July 17, 2017

Property takes a licking and keeps on ticking

Property activity just won’t go away. That’s our second key takeaway from China’s Q2 GDP numbers that were released this morning. Property spending accelerated just a touch in June to 7.9% y/y growth – up from 7.3% in May. That dynamic, along with still-strong exports supported Chinese gro…

Property activity just won’t go away.
That’s our second key takeaway from China’s Q2 GDP numbers that were released this morning.
Property spending accelerated just a touch in June to 7.9% y/y growth – up from 7.3% in May.
That dynamic, along with still-strong exports supported Chinese gro...

sources

CNBC: China property investment, sales quicken in June despite government curbs

July 14, 2017

China’s Monroe Doctrine

Howard French explains Xi Jinping’s plan for a modern-day Monroe Doctrine: “What China’s leaders have said amounts to easily decipherable code language for their own version of this policy.” “They say Asia should be governed by Asians.” “[But] they say that since time immemorial the South China Sea…

Howard French explains Xi Jinping’s plan for a modern-day Monroe Doctrine:

“What China’s leaders have said amounts to easily decipherable code language for their own version of this policy.”
“They say Asia should be governed by Asians.”
“[But] they say that since time immemorial the South China Sea...

sources

NYT: China’s Quest to End Its Century of Shame

July 14, 2017

Despite US pressure, China’s trade with North Korea is increasing

In case you’ve been living under a rock: the US wants China to do more on North Korea. In particular, the Americans want China to limit trade with the DPRK. Well, this is awkward: China’s own H1 customs data show it’s not happening: Sino-DPRK trade is up 10.5% y/y so far this year. Exports to …

In case you’ve been living under a rock: the US wants China to do more on North Korea. In particular, the Americans want China to limit trade with the DPRK.
Well, this is awkward: China’s own H1 customs data show it’s not happening:

Sino-DPRK trade is up 10.5% y/y so far this year.
Exports to ...

sources

The Paper: 海关总署：上半年中国自朝鲜进口煤炭同比减少74.5%

Xinhua: 外交部：希望韩朝双方相互释放善意

July 14, 2017

The FSDC takes shape

Wait for it.Waiiiiit for it. Details around China’s evolving financial policy continue to trickle out in the wake of the National Financial Work Conference (NFWC) that took place over the weekend. Specifically, the new Financial Stability and Development Committee (FSDC) that was established at the …

Wait for it.Waiiiiit for it. Details around China’s evolving financial policy continue to trickle out in the wake of the National Financial Work Conference (NFWC) that took place over the weekend.
Specifically, the new Financial Stability and Development Committee (FSDC) that was established at the ...

sources

PBoC: 人民银行党委召开扩大会议迅速传达学习贯彻全国金融工作会议精神

People's Daily: 国务院金稳会做什么怎么做

People's Daily: 坚定深化金融改革

China.com: 人民日报评论员：更好服务实体经济——一论做好当前金融工作

Xinhua: 人民日报评论员：有效防范金融风险——二论做好当前金融工作

July 14, 2017

China’s financial regulators get together

The long-awaited National Financial Work Conference starts today. Don’t forget: This meeting is happening half a year late because of disagreements about the agenda. The animating purpose of the meeting: to strengthen financial supervision and coordination. The idea is to shine a light on …

The long-awaited National Financial Work Conference starts today.
Don’t forget: This meeting is happening half a year late because of disagreements about the agenda.
The animating purpose of the meeting: to strengthen financial supervision and coordination. The idea is to shine a light on ...

sources

China Securities Journal: 强监管”“稳改革”双管齐下金融监管改革剑指监管套利

July 14, 2017

The authorities are putting the brakes on outward investment

They may not be “capital controls”, per se, but regulators are certainly attempting to control capital. It seems to be working: China’s overseas direct investment (ODI) cratered by 45.8% y/y to USD 48.2 billion in H1. Investment in sectors flagged as off-limits tanked even more. Real…

They may not be “capital controls”, per se, but regulators are certainly attempting to control capital.
It seems to be working:

China’s overseas direct investment (ODI) cratered by 45.8% y/y to USD 48.2 billion in H1.
Investment in sectors flagged as off-limits tanked even more. Real...

sources

MofCom: 商务部召开例行新闻发布会 (2017年7月13日)

July 14, 2017

Overseas investment – down but not out

We’ve told you before: The crackdown on outbound MandA for some of China’s corporate highfliers is not fundamentally about politics. Regulators just want a more rational outbound investment climate. They don’t see a lot of value in snapping up soccer teams across the globe. But if deals are eco…

We’ve told you before: The crackdown on outbound MandA for some of China’s corporate highfliers is not fundamentally about politics.
Regulators just want a more rational outbound investment climate. They don’t see a lot of value in snapping up soccer teams across the globe.
But if deals are eco...

sources

Caixin: HNA to Pay $16 Million for Controlling Stake in Brazil Airport

Caixin: China’s Largest Investment Bank Announces First Overseas Acquisition

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