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Macro

April 21, 2020

The new bottom line

COVID-19 has brought unprecedented challenges to the economy and forced the Party to change their policy priorities. Case in point: Top leaders updated their economic mantra at the Politburo meeting last Friday (see yesterday’s Tip Sheet). Besides reiterating the six stabilities as policy … Username Password Remember Me Forgot Password

COVID-19 has brought unprecedented challenges to the economy and forced the Party to change their policy priorities.
Case in point: Top leaders updated their economic mantra at the Politburo meeting last Friday (see yesterday’s Tip Sheet).
Besides reiterating the six stabilities as policy ...

sources

Xinhua: 中共中央政治局召开会议习近平主持

April 21, 2020

Open and shut

Chinese officials are on the horns of a dilemma, forced to choose between: Relaxing epidemic-related restrictions and risk a resurgence of COVID-19 cases, or Keeping stringent restrictions in place and accepting drags on economic recovery After due consideration, they’ve chosen: All of the above …

Chinese officials are on the horns of a dilemma, forced to choose between:

Relaxing epidemic-related restrictions and risk a resurgence of COVID-19 cases, or
Keeping stringent restrictions in place and accepting drags on economic recovery

After due consideration, they’ve chosen:

All of the above
...

sources

NHC: 截至4月20日24时新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情最新情况

Financial Times: Harbin outbreak threatens China’s coronavirus recovery

WSJ: China Raises Easing Coronavirus Border Controls With Other Countries

The Paper: 哈尔滨两家医院发生院内感染，排查名单上有4106人

April 20, 2020

No news on Two Sessions from top legislators

Mark your calendars! On Friday, the National People’s Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC) – China’s legislature – decided to hold its next bi-monthly session from April 26-29. Seven legislative bills are up for review (Xinhua): Biosecurity Law Revision to the Animal Epidemic Prevention Law Revision…

Mark your calendars!
On Friday, the National People’s Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC) – China’s legislature – decided to hold its next bi-monthly session from April 26-29.
Seven legislative bills are up for review (Xinhua):

Biosecurity Law
Revision to the Animal Epidemic Prevention Law
Revision...

sources

Xinhua: 栗战书主持召开十三届全国人大常委会第五十次委员长会议决定十三届全国人大常委会第十七次会议4月26日至29日在京举行

NPC Observer: NPCSC Session Watch: COVID-19 Responses, Copyright, Armed Police Reform Silence on 2020 NPC

April 20, 2020

PBoC testing new digital currency

The economic volatility and uncertainty from the COVID-19 outbreak hasn’t stopped the central bank (PBoC) from moving forward with plans to launch their digital currency. The latest: The PBoC has started trialing the new currency, known as DCEP, with four banks in four cities. Caixin has the de…

The economic volatility and uncertainty from the COVID-19 outbreak hasn’t stopped the central bank (PBoC) from moving forward with plans to launch their digital currency.
The latest: The PBoC has started trialing the new currency, known as DCEP, with four banks in four cities.
Caixin has the de...

sources

Caixin: China Starts Trial of Digital Currency in Four Cities

SCMP: From travel subsidies to party fees, China’s digital currency takes shape as trials begin

April 20, 2020

Incomes slashed

China’s economy suffered the worst downturn on record in the first quarter of 2020 (see April 17 Tip Sheet). Within the broader economic data dump, one stat stands out – incomes were slashed during Q1 (SCMP): “Per capita disposable income dropped 3.9 per cent to 8,561 yuan (US$1,209) in the fi…

“Per capita disposable income dropped 3.9 per cent to 8,561 yuan (US$1,209) in the fi...

sources

SCMP: Coronavirus: Chinese incomes tumble for the first time on record in fresh challenge for Beijing

April 20, 2020

Leaders signal more economic support

Friday’s Politburo meeting also discussed economic policy. Some context: The Politburo discusses economic policy every quarter afterquarterly economic data is released. The official readout was decidedly downbeat: “The first quarter of this year was extremely unusual.” “The unexpected novel co…

Friday’s Politburo meeting also discussed economic policy.
Some context: The Politburo discusses economic policy every quarter afterquarterly economic data is released.
The official readout was decidedly downbeat:

“The first quarter of this year was extremely unusual.”
“The unexpected novel co...

sources

CPC People: 中共中央政治局召开会议中共中央总书记习近平主持会议

April 20, 2020

Politburo still focused epidemic control

On Friday, the Politburo held its monthly meeting. Surprise, surprise–controlling the COVID-19 epidemic remains the top priority (CPC People): “It is an arduous task to…prevent a rebound in the epidemic.” Hubei continues to be the frontline for epidemic control (Xinhua): “The meeting stress…

On Friday, the Politburo held its monthly meeting.
Surprise, surprise–controlling the COVID-19 epidemic remains the top priority (CPC People):

“It is an arduous task to…prevent a rebound in the epidemic.”

Hubei continues to be the frontline for epidemic control (Xinhua):

“The meeting stress...

sources

CPC People: 中共中央政治局召开会议中共中央总书记习近平主持会议

Xinhua: Xi Focus: Xi chairs leadership meeting on regular epidemic control, economic work

April 20, 2020

Few asymptomatic carriers in Wuhan

This morning, the NHC dropped the latest numbers for domestic COVID-19 cases. Between April 17 and 19 (NHC): There were 55 new COVID-19 cases, of which 34 were imported. 16 locally transmitted cases were recorded in Heilongjiang andthree in Guangdong. The government believes that human error may b…

This morning, the NHC dropped the latest numbers for domestic COVID-19 cases.
Between April 17 and 19 (NHC):

There were 55 new COVID-19 cases, of which 34 were imported.
16 locally transmitted cases were recorded in Heilongjiang andthree in Guangdong.

The government believes that human error may b...

sources

NHC: 截至4月19日24时新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情最新情况

NHC: 截至4月18日24时新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情最新情况

NHC: 截至4月17日24时新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情最新情况

Xinhua: 黑龙江对疫情防控不力的18名党员干部和公职人员追责问责

21st Century Biz: 广州48家A级景区陆续完全或部分关闭

Yicai: 武汉近期完成27.54万次核酸检测检出无症状感染者182人

April 17, 2020

Business resumption update

Business activity in China continues its slow, upward grind, according to theTrivium Business Activity Index. Here are our estimates as of April 17: TheTrivium National Business Activity Indexindicates that China’s economy is operating at 82.9% of typical output, up from 82.8% on April 16. TheTrivi…

Business activity in China continues its slow, upward grind, according to theTrivium Business Activity Index.
Here are our estimates as of April 17:

TheTrivium National Business Activity Indexindicates that China’s economy is operating at 82.9% of typical output, up from 82.8% on April 16.
TheTrivi...

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Yicai: 全国工商联调研：九成民企复工，在线经济领域民企逆势增长

Trivium: Getting China back to work

April 17, 2020

Slower economic contraction in March is a win

The stats bureau also released March economic data on Friday morning. The headline: Things were bad – but much better than in the Jan-Feb period. The details: Industrial production contracted by 1.1% y/y – vastly improved from the 25.9% contraction in Jan-Feb. Fixed asset investment contracted…

The stats bureau also released March economic data on Friday morning.
The headline: Things were bad – but much better than in the Jan-Feb period.
The details:

Industrial production contracted by 1.1% y/y – vastly improved from the 25.9% contraction in Jan-Feb.
Fixed asset investment contracted...

sources

NBS: 统筹疫情防控和经济社会发展成效显著 3月份主要经济指标降幅明显收窄

April 17, 2020

Quarterly GDP sees deep contraction

It’s official: Chinese GDP contracted by 6.8% y/y in Q1 2020, on a real basis. In real q/q terms: The economy shrunk by 9.8%. Some context: These numbers are the lowest on record – by far – but they are in line with the consensus projections from economists. Anyone who’s been payin…

It’s official: Chinese GDP contracted by 6.8% y/y in Q1 2020, on a real basis.

In real q/q terms: The economy shrunk by 9.8%.

Some context: These numbers are the lowest on record – by far – but they are in line with the consensus projections from economists.

Anyone who’s been payin...

sources

NBS: 统筹疫情防控和经济社会发展成效显著 3月份主要经济指标降幅明显收窄

April 17, 2020

Wuhan revises up COVID-19 deaths and cases

This morning, the NHC dropped the latest numbers for domestic COVID-19 cases. On April 16 (NHC): There were 26 new COVID-19 cases, of which 15 were imported. Local transmission continued in Guangdong and Heilongjiang. Five local transmissions were recorded in Guangdong and three in Heilongjiang. …

This morning, the NHC dropped the latest numbers for domestic COVID-19 cases.
On April 16 (NHC):

There were 26 new COVID-19 cases, of which 15 were imported.

Local transmission continued in Guangdong and Heilongjiang.

Five local transmissions were recorded in Guangdong and three in Heilongjiang.
...

sources

NHC: 截至4月16日24时新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情最新情况

Xinhua: 关于武汉市新冠肺炎确诊病例数确诊病例死亡数订正情况的通报

Xinhua: 武汉市新冠肺炎确诊病例数确诊病例死亡数订正情况答记者问

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