Population growth in Guangdong and Zhejiang point to localized consumption tailwinds

The demographic outlook for China's provinces is rapidly diverging.

According to population growth data compiled by The Paper, of China's 31 provinces (including municipalities and autonomous regions), just seven recorded population growth in 2025.

• Guangdong recorded the largest expansion, with a net gain of 790,000 residents, followed by Zhejiang at 310,000.
• The other five provinces recorded negligible increases.
• Population in the remaining 24 provinces shrank.

Guangdong is the standout.

• Around 63% of its population growth, roughly 500,000 residents, came from net migration, drawn by a deliberate talent attraction strategy – the "Million Talents into Guangdong" initiative.
• Its industrial base – spanning EVs, smart home appliances, robotics, and integrated circuits – is both the cause and the beneficiary of this talent concentration.

Zhejiang’s population expansion was driven entirely by migration.

• The province recorded its fifth consecutive year of population growth, despite the natural population actually declining.
• High rates of migration to the province are driven by Zhejiang’s thriving private sector, including a digital economy anchored by a cluster of AI and robotics companies, and a strong manufacturing base.

The migrants flowing into these provinces are higher-skilled and better-educated than traditional migrant labor.

• Higher-skilled workers command higher incomes, creating a consumption tailwind that goes beyond what headline population figures alone would suggest.

This means a self-reinforcing dynamic is taking hold: Thriving industrial bases attract skilled workers, skilled workers generate higher incomes and consumption, and stronger consumption and talent pools in turn attract further investment.

The upshot: For investors and businesses, Guangdong and Zhejiang are emerging as two of China's most compelling growth stories.