Central Economic Work Conference kicks off in Beijing

The annual Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) has kicked off in Beijing.

As usual, there has been no official announcement of the start of the CEWC, but a front-page op-ed in Wednesday’s People’s Daily reviewing 2024 economic performance is a clear tell that the conference is underway.

Some context: The CEWC – typically chaired by Xi Jinping – is the forum where top Party officials set the economic agenda for the year ahead.

• Among other things, the meeting will set next year’s GDP growth target, which won’t be announced until the legislature (NPC) meets for its annual plenary session in March.

We expect a readout of the CEWC to be released following the meeting’s conclusion on Thursday afternoon.

• Although the readout won’t reveal the specific policy setting and targets for 2025, it will offer some important signals about what might be in store.

In particular, we’ll be poring over the readout for clues about:

• How officials will look to implement the “more active fiscal policies and moderately accommodative monetary policy” highlighted at Monday’s Politburo meeting – fiscal and monetary policy should have dedicated paragraphs in the readout
• How officials intend to bolster tech, manufacturing, property, equities, and consumption, which the Politburo meeting underscored as support focuses for next year
• Whether officials will boost the social safety net – which numerous advisors argue is critical to boosting consumption over the long term
• How the leadership is preparing to manage heightened frictions with the US under the incoming Trump administration – this will almost certainly be alluded to in a dedicated paragraph on economic opening or perhaps in a new paragraph on “economic security”