Beijing prepares for Trump 2.0
Like the rest of the world, Beijing has spent Wednesday poring over US election results.
With a Trump presidency now confirmed, Beijing will be trying to figure out what Trump 2.0 means for Sino-US relations and the world more broadly.
The rub: Trump is fundamentally unpredictable, and it’s unclear how he will approach the issues at the heart of the US-China relationship.
- That means the Party-state will now be focused on trying to figure out what Trump will do in his second term.
Here are the big questions that Beijing will be asking in the weeks and months ahead:
1. How will the US approach Taiwan?
- Long the most important issue in the bilateral relationship, the range of possibilities here are truly all over the map.
- On the one hand, there are many in Trump world – including several prominent potential cabinet appointees – who want to push the US towards an explicitly pro-Taiwan independence posture.
- On the other hand, Trump has repeatedly signaled that he sees Taiwan as little more than a bargaining chip, and could be persuaded to more or less abandon American support for the island.
2. What’s next for the China's trade relationship with the US?
- Trump has pledged to place tariffs of at least 60% on Chinese imports, with potentially devastating consequences for the US-China trade and global trade flows more broadly.
- Assuming Trump follows through, China will need to choose between continued restraint or more hard-headed retaliation, including by making more aggressive use of its anti-economic coercion toolkit, which could cause serious damage to US business.
- Trump has also pledged tariffs on all imports to the US, which would provide an incentive for other major economies to boost trade ties with China.
3. What about tech and export controls?
- The Biden administration’s approach to China has been characterized by a growing regime of damaging tech and export controls targeting a large swath of Chinese industry.
- It’s an open question whether Trump will continue this strategy or opt for a less systematic approach à la his first term.
- During Trump’s first term, Xi Jinping used personal diplomacy to get Trump to roll back restrictions on ZTE and Huawei, and it’s possible Xi could repeat the trick this time around by appealing to Trump’s “dealmaker” sensibilities.
- Additionally, the likelihood that Trump alienates other major chip producing countries might enable a trickle of high-end chips back into the China market, taking some of the sting out of the Biden-era bans.
4. What does Trump 2.0 mean for China’s security?
- US diplomacy will see an inward turn that could alienate erstwhile American allies and partners and weaken the US security presence globally, including NATO and American security commitments to Asian allies.
- This could give Beijing more room to breathe and peel US allies away from Washington’s orbit.
- On the other hand, it could prompt a security reshuffle, with countries like South Korea and Japan taking more robust steps to look out for their own defense, up to and including developing their own nuclear weapons and forming regional alliance networks, something China would been keen to avoid.
5. How best to capitalize on the return of “America First” to build China’s global cred?
- During Trump’s first term, China had an opportunity to cast itself as a responsible global power, but largely squandered it due to ham-handed diplomacy.
- Beijing once again has a chance to seize the initiative and portray itself as a defender of free trade and multilateralism in contrast with US protectionism and unilateralism in hopes of enhancing its power in global governance forums.
- It will be for Chinese strategists to decide how best to make use of Washington’s inward turn to promote global multipolarity and global governance reform in line with its own interests.
Buckle up: As with his first term, Trump’s second administration promises to be a turbulent time for world politics and trade.
- For China, both danger and opportunity abound.