The big idea that took Xi seven months
We've got some clues about the upcoming Third Plenum's reform agenda.
On Wednesday, Qiushi – the Party’s top theoretical journal – published excerpts from Xi Jinping's past speeches that discuss economic and social reforms.
Two excerpts stood out to us.
First, Xi revealed parts of his reform agenda during the Second Plenum in February 2023:
- “While prioritizing economic reforms, it is also essential to plan and advance reforms in the areas of education, science and technology, talent development, politics, rule of law, culture, society, ecology, national security, and Party building.”
Second, at a Politburo study session in January 2024, Xi suggested there will be a whole-of-country approach to innovation and new quality productive forces (NQPF):
- “NQPF require forward-looking planning and guidance by the government, scientific policy support, as well as regulation by market mechanisms and continuous innovation by enterprises and other micro-entities.”
Get smart: With innovation clearly taking center stage at the Third Plenum, we can deduce two things:
- There will be more industrial policies to identify and cultivate next-generation technologies in the hope of creating world-leading tech industries.
- Reforms that channel capital and talent into innovative sectors will also be a top priority.
Our question: If Xi had already identified his reform agenda in February 2023, why was the Third Plenum delayed?
- We suspect he was waiting to develop a central concept that unified his push for tech and econ-related reforms – after all, it wasn't until September 2023 that Xi publicly introduced the idea of new quality productive forces.
What to watch: Over the next few weeks we'll get more hints as to what China's reform agenda will look like.