Ready, aim…
Beijing is ramping up pressure on Taiwan ahead of its presidential election on January 13.
On Friday, the Ministry of Commerce (MofCom) concluded that Taiwan has erected trade barriers on over 2,500 Chinese products.
- That includes over a thousand agricultural products and a long list of manufactured goods, including metals, consumer electronics, new energy equipment, textiles, and pharmaceuticals.
MofCom didn't announce any countermeasures.
ICYMI: MofCom kicked off the investigation in April and extended it in October – ensuring the results landed shortly before voting kicks off in Taiwan.
- That's drawn repeated accusations of election interference from Taiwan's ruling DPP government, whose candidate, current VP William Lai Ching-te, is the frontrunner.
Get smart: MofCom's results give Beijing plenty of ammo to launch retaliatory restrictions on Taiwanese products – but we think regulators will hold fire for now.
- Beijing has focused on bolstering cross-straight business and investment all year.
- Any late-stage retaliatory measures are unlikely to impact election results in a positive way for the mainland.
Get smarter: Instead, we suspect Beijing is laying the groundwork for targeted retaliation (or the threat of it) to curb any post-election inflammatory rhetoric should the DPP win.