It’s gonna be a no from Xi, dawg

Is Xi Jinping stepping back from the world stage?

On Thursday, Reuters scooped that Xi would likely skip next week’s G20 Summit in New Delhi, India. Premier Li Qiang will attend in his stead.

There's more: The foreign ministry said Li, not Xi, would attend the ASEAN and East Asia Summits in Jakarta next week.

So what’s going on?

• We don’t know, but we have theories.

Possibility 1: Xi’s got better things to do.

• With the economy in turmoil and having just returned from the BRICS Summit, Xi may feel his time is better spent tackling domestic issues.

Possibility 2: Xi doesn’t like the guest list.

• Hosted by regional rival India, G20 attendees will include US President Joe Biden, Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio, and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, representing countries with whom China has serious beef.
• Protocol issues or the risk of an embarrassing off-script encounter may have prompted Xi to stay home.

Possibility 3: Xi is growing more comfortable delegating diplomacy.

• Xi’s recent trip to South Africa was only his second international trip in 2023, compared with four international trips during the same period in 2019.
• Meanwhile, Premier Li has been assigned important diplomatic tasks including a highly successful European tour earlier this year.

Possibility 4: Some combination of the above.

Get smart: Multilateral summits are opportunities for crucial face-to-face diplomacy.

• Xi’s absence will hinder Beijing’s ability to patch up troubled relationships at a critical time.