Summertime sadness…suspended
China's youth unemployment rate probably hit a new record high in July.
But we can't be sure.
- That's because on Tuesday, as part of its July data dump, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced it had temporarily suspended release of youth employment data.
ICYDK: The rate, which covers urban 16-24 year-olds, broke records for the third consecutive month in June, hitting 21.3%.
- The figure was expected to worsen in July and August as an influx of fresh graduates enter the job market.
NBS spokesperson Fu Linghui insisted regulators are simply updating their methodology, citing known issues like:
- An overly wide age range that includes teens seeking summer jobs while remaining financially reliant on families
- Inclusion of full-time university students who kick off job searches long before graduation
But there's no question the bleak data point was also dragging on consumer confidence:
- The central bank said so explicitly in early July.
Get smart: Beijing could continue to release the data while improving statistical methods. It just don't want to.
Get smarter: This isn't the first time that Beijing has simply "disappeared" crucial economic data.
- The move will increase investors' concerns about transparency and economic health.
The bigger picture: Just because the figure isn't published doesn't mean Beijing will ignore youth unemployment.
- The Party is well aware that jobless young people can beget social movements and protests.